Hormuz or Bust: Iran Threatens to Shut Down 20% of the World's Oil Supply — and the Market Is Just Now Waking Up

Let's not bury the lede: Iran's Revolutionary Guards have threatened to completely close the Strait of Hormuz — the chokepoint through which roughly 20% of global oil supply flows daily — if Trump follows through on threats against Iranian energy infrastructure. Goldman Sachs is now projecting Brent crude averaging $104/barrel in Q2, with a supply shortfall of approximately 13 million barrels per day already baked in. The Saudi Aramco CEO just pulled out of a major international energy conference. This is not a drill.

Social sentiment across YouTube, Reddit, and X is a fascinating split: finance veterans like Steve Eisman (of Big Short fame) are telling anyone who'll listen that the market narrative hasn't actually changed — AI spending, tight labor markets (jobless claims at 189K, lowest since the late 1960s), and solid credit. Meanwhile, a Bloomberg podcast guest is flagging 'no signal for resolution' in the Persian Gulf, and the Felix & Friends crew on YouTube is connecting the UAE's departure from OPEC — and its pivot to selling oil in yuan — to record central bank gold buying. One of these camps is going to look very smart in about 30 days.

The dollar is catching haven bids, UK PM Starmer has called an emergency economic meeting, and core PCE just printed at 3.2% — the hottest since November 2023. Stagflation isn't a Twitter word anymore; it's the actual policy problem sitting on Powell's desk while he tries to hold rates steady amid a four-member dissent. If Hormuz closes even partially, the Fed's carefully managed soft landing becomes a controlled crash landing — and the only thing going up is oil, gold, and your anxiety.