Hormuz Opens, Semis Explode, and the Market Shrugged Off a Whole War: Your Week 26 Roundup
Geopolitics lit the fuse, semiconductors caught the rocket, and Seth Klarman is quietly sweating in the corner
Ticker Ratings
| Ticker | Rating | Entry Price | Current | $ Gain | % Gain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| INTC INTEL CORP | buy | $134.18 | — | — | — |
| AAPL Apple Inc. | hold | $297.23 | — | — | — |
| CCL Carnival Corp Ltd. | buy | $30.90 | — | — | — |
| USO United States Oil Fund, LP | hold | $114.87 | — | — | — |
| ASML ASML HOLDING NV | hold | $1929.00 | — | — | — |
| MU MICRON TECHNOLOGY INC | buy | $1151.95 | — | — | — |
| FDX FEDEX CORP | buy | $326.99 | — | — | — |
| GLD SPDR GOLD TRUST | buy | $387.12 | — | — | — |
| SPCE Virgin Galactic Holdings, Inc | hold | $3.50 | — | — | — |
Let's set the scene: Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz, ~80 million barrels of oil got stranded in the Gulf, UK Prime Minister Starmer called an emergency economic meeting, and prediction markets gave him a 90% chance of being replaced by year-end. Normal week. And yet — by Friday, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index surged 6.4% to a record high, Asian markets were ripping, and bond yields were falling. The crowd that panicked Monday got absolutely cooked.
The biggest social sentiment winner of the week was unambiguously the semis-long / software-short trade. $INTC was the poster child — shares surged over 8-10% after Trump announced an Apple domestic chip partnership, and Goldman Sachs called a semiconductor super cycle. Meanwhile, $ACN (Accenture) face-planted 15-20% after revealing enterprises are gutting consulting budgets to fund AI — the clearest real-world confirmation yet that the 'picks and shovels' thesis is eating the 'solutions' thesis alive. The Andrei Jikh crew on YouTube was also loud about gold, with central banks now holding gold above US Treasuries as their number one reserve asset for the first time in modern history — a detail that got buried under the war noise but absolutely shouldn't have.
The Iran deal is a 60-day MOU that Ian Bremmer on Bloomberg called a failure on virtually every original US objective — think Trump's China tariff capitulation but with more missiles. Oil is overshooting to the downside per Jeff Currie at Carlyle, who sees $80-85/barrel as the re-entry point once buyers stop destocking. Oh, and the Knicks won their first NBA championship in 53 years and generated $380 million in postseason economic activity for NYC. Sometimes the market and Madison Square Garden both win in the same week.