Hormuz Is Closed and Oil Just Hit $111 — Welcome to the Market's Worst Monday Since COVID

Let's just say it plainly: WTI crude is at $111/barrel (+11%) and Brent is at $108 (+7%) after Trump vowed continued escalation against Iran. The Strait of Hormuz — through which roughly 20% of the world's oil flows — is effectively closed, and the Revolutionary Guards are threatening to keep it that way. Bloomberg's Iran war coverage on YouTube is getting eyeball numbers usually reserved for a Fed pivot announcement, and Reddit's r/investing is basically a support group at this point.

Meanwhile, $TSLA is quietly having one of its worst sales quarters in memory, discontinuing the Model S and Model X while pivoting to robotics. $INTC is the unexpected bright spot — up ~30% YTD with an $8B+ government equity stake, a $5B check from Nvidia, and a $37.5B cash reserve that suddenly looks very smart in a world falling apart. $MSFT, on the other hand, is down ~25% over the past year after a data center miscalculation that CFO Amy Hood is probably not framing for the office wall.

Asian economies are 4-6 weeks of sailing time away from genuine energy shortages, the classic 60/40 portfolio is failing again, and UK PM Starmer just called an emergency economic meeting. History called — it wants its oil shock back.