Hormuz Is Back, Baby — But Don't Sleep on the Anthropic Bombshell Hiding Behind the Oil Headlines

The biggest news of the week isn't the war — it's the deal that may or may not end it. President Trump signed a 60-day ceasefire MOU with Iran, dangling what Bloomberg describes as hundreds of billions in financial incentives for Iran to behave. The Strait of Hormuz — through which roughly 20% of global oil flows — is expected to reopen within 30 days. Ian Bremmer on Bloomberg Podcasts put his confidence in a full nuclear deal at somewhere between 'low' and 'laughable,' and yet oil whipsawed on the news anyway, because markets gonna market.

Meanwhile, buried under the geopolitical chaos: Anthropic — confidentially filed for an IPO at a near-$965 billion valuation — received a 90-minute Commerce Department notice to shut down its flagship AI models globally over alleged export control violations. Amazon's Andy Jasse reportedly tipped off the White House despite Amazon being a major Anthropic investor. The jailbreak in question? Asking a coding AI to... read code. The irony is doing heavy lifting here.

SpaceX just completed the largest IPO on record, the IPO market is running 2x year-over-year volume, and Carnival Cruise is reporting Tuesday with options pricing in a ~6% move — sentiment improving now that Hormuz isn't a parking lot for supertankers. If this ceasefire holds, someone's about to have a very good summer. If it doesn't, well — Treasury Secretary Bessent says the US has 'plenty' of funds for an Iran war, which is the kind of thing that sounds reassuring until you think about it for three seconds.