Goldman and Citi Are About to Report Earnings While the World Is Literally on Fire
Retail traders are watching bank earnings with one eye and an oil shock with the other — and the vibes are not great
Ticker Ratings
Wall Street's earnings season kicks off this week with $GS, $C, and others dropping Q1 numbers — and the timing could not be more chaotic. According to Bloomberg, JP Morgan is projecting ~15% growth in both trading revenues and investment banking, and $WFC is riding post-asset-cap removal momentum with balance sheet expansion on deck. On paper? Solid. On vibes? Absolutely unhinged.
Here's the plot twist nobody penciled into their models: the Strait of Hormuz is now effectively closed. Failed US-Iran peace talks have triggered a US Navy blockade, with analysts describing what Bloomberg calls "the biggest energy shortfall in history" — 10–13 million barrels per day of upstream production shut in, physical crude already trading at a $30–$40 premium, and IG markets showing oil up 6% over the weekend. Banks love volatility for trading desks, but cracked consumer spending data is the wildcard hiding in these reports.
Retail traders are caught between two very real gravitational pulls: strong bank fundamentals that were built before this mess, and a macro environment that just went full season-finale. TheChartGuys are watching SPY downside levels closely — if the consumer cracks show up in bank loan books, those 15% trading revenue projections are going to age like an open bag of chips.