Earnings Season Is Printing, But the Market Can't Stop Doom-Scrolling Hormuz Updates
Consensus EPS for next year just got bumped to $3.75 — so why does everyone feel like the world is ending?
Ticker Ratings
| Ticker | Rating | Entry Price | Current | $ Gain | % Gain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UNH UNITEDHEALTH GROUP INC | buy | $349.59 | — | — | — |
| GEV GE Vernova Inc. | buy | $1070.99 | — | — | — |
| RTX RTX Corp | buy | $188.20 | — | — | — |
| SPY SPDR S&P 500 ETF TRUST | hold | $708.56 | — | — | — |
| NVDA NVIDIA CORP | buy | $200.83 | — | — | — |
| GOOGL Alphabet Inc. | buy | $338.21 | — | — | — |
| TMUS T-Mobile US, Inc. | hold | $193.49 | — | — | — |
| DHI HORTON D R INC /DE/ | buy | $162.52 | — | — | — |
Here's the vibe right now: the fundamental picture is quietly getting better while the macro headlines are screaming. Morgan Stanley's Andrew Slimmon noted on CNBC that next-year S&P consensus EPS has been revised up from $3.57 to $3.75 — slap a 20x multiple on that and you get a fair value target of roughly $7,500 on the S&P. That's not nothing. Meanwhile, the Strait of Hormuz has been closed for eight weeks, peace talks keep collapsing, and apparently VP Vance canceled his Pakistan trip via vibes.
$UNH was the earnings hero of the week, surging as much as 11% intraday after posting Q1 profits that beat estimates with a medical loss ratio of 83.9% — better than feared. $GEV and $RTX both beat Q1 estimates but sold off because they didn't raise full-year guidance, which is apparently the new market sin. Cramer called the pullback a buying opportunity given their massive backlogs, and honestly it's hard to argue with a defense backlog in a world where geopolitical risk is the daily special.
Retail sentiment is doing that thing where it wants to be bullish on earnings but keeps getting distracted by the geopolitical doom loop — and frankly, if history is any guide, that's usually when the buying opportunity is staring you in the face.