Credit Markets Are Screaming Bear — But Retail Is Still Buying the Dip in $OXY and $COP
Social sentiment is cautiously bullish into earnings season, but the smart money is quietly building shorts
Ticker Ratings
Let's get straight to the uncomfortable truth: credit markets are breaking while equities are holding a brave face. Andrei Jikh's latest video puts it plainly — credit spreads blowing out while $SPY stays in "minor pullback" territory has preceded bear markets three out of three times in the past 20 years. That's not a sample size to argue with at a dinner party, let alone a trading desk.
Meanwhile, TheChartGuys are watching key resistance levels with the intensity of someone checking their ex's Instagram. $QQQ needs to reclaim 591.33 or this bounce is officially a dead cat — and with hedge funds sitting on large short positions, last week's rally looks more like a short squeeze than genuine conviction. Geopolitical noise from the Iran-Strait of Hormuz situation is adding a ~9% weekly drawdown pattern (up Mon–Wed, down Thu–Fri) that's been remarkably consistent since the conflict escalated.
Earnings season walks into this mess like someone arriving late to a party that's already on fire — retail traders are optimistic, the bond market is not, and oil names like $OXY and $COP are caught in the geopolitical crossfire. The vibes are bullish; the data is not vibing back.