Bull Market or Bull Trap? Dimon Says 'Too Much Exuberance' While Yardeni Screams Dow 60,000
Inflation at 3.8%, oil at $99, semiconductors in freefall, and somehow Ed Yardeni is still bullish — social sentiment is a war zone right now
Ticker Ratings
| Ticker | Rating | Entry Price | Current | $ Gain | % Gain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BA BOEING CO | buy | $237.28 | — | — | — |
| UAA Under Armour, Inc. | sell | $5.05 | — | — | — |
| CME CME GROUP INC. | buy | $287.21 | — | — | — |
| ETSY ETSY INC | hold | $57.25 | — | — | — |
| GME GameStop Corp. | sell | $22.40 | — | — | — |
| EBAY EBAY INC | hold | $110.40 | — | — | — |
| HIMS Hims & Hers Health, Inc. | hold | $24.79 | — | — | — |
| WEN Wendy's Co | hold | $7.90 | — | — | — |
| PYPL PayPal Holdings, Inc. | hold | $45.26 | — | — | — |
| GOOG Alphabet Inc. | buy | $385.68 | — | — | — |
| SPCE Virgin Galactic Holdings, Inc | hold | $2.78 | — | — | — |
| BTC Grayscale Bitcoin Mini Trust ETF | hold | $80557.00 | — | — | — |
| TSLA Tesla, Inc. | hold | $432.39 | — | — | — |
The market is sending three different signals simultaneously and none of them agree. CPI hit 3.8% year-over-year in April — the fastest pace since 2023 — driven by a 5.4% gasoline surge tied to Middle East conflict. Brent crude surged nearly 4% to $108 intraday while $JPM's Jamie Dimon went on Bloomberg warning markets are sitting in the top 10-15% of historical valuations with credit spreads that are dangerously cozy. Meanwhile, Ed Yardeni on Bloomberg Surveillance raised his S&P 500 target to 8,250 by 2026 and called this the 'Modern Roaring 20s.' These two men are not looking at the same screen.
Semiconductors are having their worst identity crisis since the dot-com era. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index had run 60% above its 200-day moving average — a level literally not seen since 1999 — before profit-taking hit like a freight train. $QCOM posted its worst single day since March 2020. $BA meanwhile is quietly becoming the most geopolitically interesting stock on the board, with China reportedly eyeing 500 Boeing 737 Max jets as a trade sweetener for Trump's Beijing summit.
Retail investors on eToro are buying every dip while institutions go risk-off — which is either the most bullish contrarian signal of the year or the setup for a very painful lesson. Either way, CME is already building futures markets for GPU compute, because when the chaos is this good, you might as well make it tradable.