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The Iran war is rewriting energy markets in real time, and social sentiment is somewhere between panic and dark humor
It's triple-witching Friday and the market is acting accordingly — S&P 500 down ~1.5%, Nasdaq down ~2%, VIX above 27, and Brent crude north of $112/barrel. The Iran war isn't just a geopolitical story anymore; it's a full portfolio event. Diesel crossing $5/gallon — levels last seen during the 2022 Russia shock — is the kind of stat that makes Fed Governor Waller's 'inflation cools in H2' take feel optimistic to the point of brave.
The Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed, Iran is apparently not in the mood to chat about reopening it, and CBS is reporting U.S. ground troop preparations. Switzerland just noped out of weapons exports, NATO is pulling troops from Iraq, and Qatar's energy boss is basically saying 'I told you so.' Meanwhile, $FDX quietly raised its full-year profit forecast, which feels like getting a compliment at a funeral.
Tom Lee is out here maintaining a 7,700 year-end S&P target — roughly 16% upside from here — citing historical data showing markets bottom early in conflicts. Either he's the most disciplined bull on Wall Street or he really, really hates being wrong. Either way, the man does not flinch.