BNPL Is Now 8% of US Online Spending — Private Credit Wants In

Buy now, pay later has graduated from a millennial checkout quirk to a full-blown institutional asset class. BNPL now accounts for nearly 8% of all US online spending — roughly $29 billion in early 2026 — and private credit firms are lining up to get a piece through so-called 'forward flow' agreements, where lenders like $AFRM originate the loans, bundle them, and sell the risk straight to private credit managers. Neat, tidy, and increasingly enormous.

The Bloomberg Podcasts breakdown makes the mechanics clear: BNPL companies get to clean their balance sheets while private credit shops get yield-hungry consumer debt with short durations. It's a match made in a rising-rate heaven. $AFRM is up over 60% year-to-date as investors start pricing in this institutional demand pipeline. $PYPL and privately-held Klarna and Afterpay are playing the same game, just with less ticker drama.

The risk? Consumer credit quality in a K-shaped economy where pawn shops are booming and grocery prices hit $7.29 for a bag of chips. Private credit managers betting on BNPL repayment are essentially betting on the bottom half of the K holding together — which, per multiple YouTube channels this week, is a bold assumption.