Bank Earnings Week: JPM, BAC, GS Face Iran War Test

Earnings season is officially here, and the timing is, to put it diplomatically, a lot. JPMorgan Chase ($JPM), Bank of America ($BAC), Goldman Sachs ($GS), and Morgan Stanley ($MS) are all set to report this week into a market where the Strait of Hormuz is closed, the Fed is being run by a guy Democrats are already interrogating, and oil tanker traffic is described by Reuters as near a standstill. The Bloomberg podcast crew noted earnings season kicks off amid key economic data releases, so the bar for a clean print is already looking like a high-jump competition held during an earthquake.

Social sentiment on the big banks is cautiously optimistic, leaning on the thesis that trading desks eat well during chaos, and investment banking pipelines that paused during tariff uncertainty could see a reopening bounce. The Fed's first semiannual report under Kevin Warsh described the economy as solid with strong productivity, which is exactly the kind of language bank bulls want to hear before a print.

The real wildcard is net interest margin guidance: if the Iran war reignites inflation (and Bloomberg's Fed report says it already is), rate cuts get pushed out, which is actually good for bank spreads but terrible for deal flow. Buckle up, because this earnings week is going to be less of a report card and more of a stress test.