Bank Earnings Are In — JPM Crushed It, WFC Faceplanted, and Retail Traders Are Betting the Fed Blinks Next

Let's set the scene: $JPM just dropped its highest-ever quarterly trading revenue — an absolute banger of a print — and the stock still slid. Why? Because Jamie Dimon casually mentioned $50 billion in private credit exposure and the market decided that was the plot twist nobody asked for. Meanwhile, $C rallied 3.5% on broad business strength, quietly becoming the adult in the room nobody noticed.

Then there's $WFC, which missed on both net interest income and non-interest income and had its worst day in nearly a year. WFC tried to blame the macro environment, which — fair, the Iran war has 13 million barrels per day disrupted and the IMF is out here warning of 2.5% global growth and 5.4% inflation in the bad scenario. But the street wasn't buying the excuse.

The bullish case, per Cramer on Mad Money, is simple: the catastrophe trades — oil at $150, Magnificent 7 implosion, private credit collapse — simply didn't happen. Long rates peaked three weeks ago, peace talks with Iran are moving (WTI dropped 7% to ~$92 on the news), and Bernstein has $HOOD at a $130 price target with crypto revenue projected north of $1 billion this year. Retail is leaning long. The Fed is playing hard to get. Classic.